Valuation & Bankability
The AIA Infrastructure Bankability Model — one repeatable product across port, rail, gas, power and industrial. An analyst runs the pipeline; a reviewer signs off at four gates. It stands on the governed assumptions registry, the engagement template and the brand deck build.
Market → viability verdict, in nine stages.
Generalised from the freight stack and the Mozambique DCF. Each stage hands off to the next on HTTP/CSV contracts, so the model is reproducible and the reviewer can gate at defined points.
Market sizing
Top-down + bottom-up.
Demand allocation
Traffic / spill, scenario matrix.
Revenue
Regulated tariff or contract.
Cost / capex
S-curve build, index escalation.
Financial engine
Levered + unlevered DCF: project & equity NPV/IRR, DSCR, IDC, tax (incentives, TLCF).
Structuring levers
Grant / viability-gap goal-seek, tariff solve, D/E, WACC sensitivity, lever waterfalls.
Economic case
EIRR, BCR, CBA benefit streams.
Viability verdict
deal_space: NPV ≥ 0 & DSCR ≥ threshold → Viable / Marginal / Not viable.
IC pack
Storyline + bankability memo.
What the analyst owns vs what the reviewer gates.
The reviewer touches the keyboard at four gates, not throughout — everything else is the analyst’s. That is what drops reviewer keystroke-% toward review-only and lets the model scale.
| Stage | Analyst runs | Reviewer gate |
|---|---|---|
| S0 · Scope | Drafts the assumptions register | Method-lock: scope, depth-stop, assumption source and decision rules set before any results |
| S1–S2 · Demand | Builds sizing + allocation, scenario matrix | Demand handoff: is the volume defensible, range stated, spill logic sound |
| S3–S4 · Rev/Cost | Tariff + cost-to-serve build | Spot-check tariff base year, escalation index, capex S-curve |
| S5 · Financial | Runs the DCF engine | Model integrity: DSCR/IRR sanity, IDC treatment, tax flags, golden tests green |
| S6–S7 · Struct/Econ | Lever waterfalls, EIRR | Structuring story: what makes it bankable, what the gap-funding ask is |
| S8–S9 · Verdict/Pack | deal_space + IC pack draft | IC-memo review: the verdict, the so-what, board altitude |
Non-negotiable — this is what makes it defensible.
- Assumptions pulled from the governed registry (versioned) — never hardcoded in scripts.
- Provenance + input fingerprint on every run; golden-regression tests must pass before any deliverable.
- dcf_mode / IDC flags controlled centrally (one switch); a validator blocks double-counting.
- Two config layers: a baseline preset + levers applied on top — never inline.
What every engagement ships.
- Demand model (volume × year × segment, range-stated)
- Revenue & cost-to-serve build
- Project + equity returns: NPV, IRR, DSCR profile
- Structuring pack: viability-gap / grant solve, tariff solve, WACC & capex sensitivities
- Economic case: EIRR / BCR
- Bankability verdict (deal_space) + IC memo
The depth-stop that protects margin.
Strategic-decision / bankability depth — enough to size, structure and decide. Not a full per-contract financial model or a lodged submission. Deeper than that is a change note, not scope creep absorbed for free.